Assembly Elections 2022

  • 2022-01-12 23:04:03

The media festival has started as soon as the elections of five states are declared. It is being said that these elections are the semi-finals of the Lok Sabha elections to be held in 2024 and all those political parties including BJP, Congress, who are in the fray, will be tested in these elections. But the reality is that these elections are not going to prove to be a litmus test for political parties but for the general public or voters. Because the results of these elections will be the measure of the mind of the voters and according to them the future political direction, condition and issues of the country will be decided which will prepare the role of the next Lok Sabha elections.



Each party has its own challenge

Of the five states where assembly elections are being held, four are in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur with BJP governments, while the Congress is in power in Punjab. That is, to save the BJP its four states as well as in Punjab where it is going for the first time without the crutches of Akali Dal, I have a challenge to bloom lotus on my own. At the same time, the goal of Congress is to save its government in Punjab and form the government in Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa and perform a miracle in Uttar Pradesh under the leadership of Priyanka Gandhi. On the other hand, in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party is in the fray with the intention of stopping the BJP alliance with its allies and forming its own government. So BSP's effort is to bring at least so many MLAs that no government can be formed without it. The Aam Aadmi Party is trying its best not to miss the government formation in Punjab this time and is also in the fray in Uttarakhand, Goa and Uttar Pradesh.


As always, PM Modi will be the commander

In these assembly elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will again be the general of the BJP, whose popular image the party will try to capitalize on in every election state. With Modi as his warlord, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP President JP Nadda, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari and all the big leaders of BJP have started campaigning in Uttar Pradesh. On the other hand, in the Congress in Punjab, where Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi, State Congress President Navjot Singh Sidhu, former State President Sunil Jakhar etc. are leaders, while in Uttarakhand, former Chief Minister Harish Rawat is the savior of the party. In Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Goa, the Aam Aadmi Party has maximum confidence in the face of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, president of the Samajwadi Party, is single-handedly giving a strong fight to Modi Yogi's army. Whereas BSP chief Mayawati trusts the loyalty of her mass base more than campaign. However, party general secretary Satish Mishra, like in 2007, has done meetings in almost the entire state to connect the Brahmins.



Responsibility of political parties amid Corona's transition

Like Bihar and West Bengal, these assembly elections are also being held under the shadow of the corona epidemic. The elections of Bihar were held during the phase of the first wave of Corona, while the elections of West Bengal, Assam and Tamil Nadu were held in the peak phase of the second wave of Corona when people across the country were worried about the deaths and treatment due to corona infection. were battling. Now the elections in five states have started in the initial phase of the third wave of Corona, when there is an apprehension that if necessary steps are not taken, then the third wave can also be frightening. That is why this time, taking lessons from the beginning, the Election Commission has given a message and instructions to the political parties and people to strictly follow the Corona restrictions. The Election Commission on its part has made all arrangements to conduct elections, avoiding corona infection. And more and more election campaigning has been asked to be done through digital and media. Till January 15, all types of rallies, processions, processions and any political program involving gathering have been completely banned. The further decision will be taken after reviewing the situation after January 15. The commission has completely banned the victory processions after the victory and has also given the facility to make nominations without crowd or online. All anti-corona measures including increase in the number of polling booths have also been taken. Now it is the responsibility of the political parties to not only strictly follow the guidelines and restrictions of the Election Commission themselves, but also to get them done by their supporters. Even more, it is the great responsibility of the general public to follow the Corona restrictions themselves and put pressure on the political parties to follow them and not allow crowds during the election campaign.


BJP's cut on opposition issues

Now if we talk about the issues in these elections, then the most important issues for the opposition are inflation, unemployment, prices of diesel petrol, price and shortage of fertilizers, increased price of gas cylinders, increased electricity rates, decaying economy, small shopkeepers, traders and There are sluggishness in the business of entrepreneurs, the problem of stray and abandoned animals, crimes against women, oppression of downtrodden and marginalized sections. Along with this, during the first wave of Corona, the sufferings of migrant laborers who reached their villages by walking thousands of miles and in the second wave a large number of deaths due to illness and lack of treatment, bodies flowing in the Ganges and other rivers and buried on the banks. The dreadful memories of long lines at crematoriums and graveyards will also be raised by the opposition in the election campaign.


To cut these, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in four states announced projects worth thousands of crores by Prime Minister Narendra Modi; By making the Purvanchal Expressway an issue, it is trying to blunt the edge of negativity and anti-incumbency trends arising out of the opposition's allegations with its developmental announcements. Along with this, BJP is trying to warn the public in Uttar Pradesh by declaring the rule of Samajwadi Party as the secret of criminals that if SP wins, then the rule of those mafia will return, which Yogi government has either sent to jail or else. Killed in police encounters. All BJP leaders including Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Chief Minister Adityanath, party president JP Nadda are raising this issue vigorously in their meetings. When they say mafia, they usually refer to the likes of Atiq Ahmed and Mukhtar Ansari, which serve two targets, one that raises the slogan of the BJP against criminalization and at the same time helps in anti-Muslim polarization. While many criminals and people with mafia character are also seen in the corridors of power and on the platform of BJP leaders. The opposition is also making it an issue in its own way,


Challenge of social equation in front of BJP

In these elections, the biggest challenge before the BJP in Uttar Pradesh is to keep its social equation simple, due to which it has got a massive victory in the 2014, 2017 and 2019 elections in Uttar Pradesh. In these elections, where the upper caste Hindus were completely with it, the BJP got huge support of non-Yadav backward and non-Jatav Dalits and in a way the Hindutva concept of the RSS overshadowed the caste mobilization. But this time the situation has changed. Despite contesting elections by making Keshav Prasad Maurya the state president, the sudden appointment of Yogi Adityanath as the chief minister, the BJP's mockery on the issue of caste census, and the supremacy of the upper castes in the governance administration have angered the backwards. While the farmers' agitation angered the Jats and other peasant castes, who had been a strong ally for the BJP in the last three elections in western Uttar Pradesh, it is difficult to say how far their displeasure has gone despite the withdrawal of all three agricultural laws. On the other hand, incidents like Sonbhadra, Hathras, killings of Dalits in Agra Ballia Prayagraj and police arbitrariness in the name of encounter, killing of young businessman in Gorakhpur have affected the image of the government.

 While Priyanka Gandhi herself created trouble for the government on every such incident on behalf of Congress, Akhilesh Yadav of SP is now raising them in every meeting.


Akhilesh's backward revolution in front of BJP's Hindutva


Sensing this social discontent, Akhilesh Yadav has named his election campaign as Backward Ki Inquilab. And he called Om Prakash Rajbhar's party, Sanjay Chauhan's party, Keshavdev Maurya's Mahan Dal, Jayant Choudhary's Rashtriya Lok Dal, Apna Dal's founder Sonelal Patel's wife Krishna Patel, Efforts to expand the support base of SP by taking along the leaders of many backward and peasant castes including Pal Samaj leader Rajaram Pal, Jats leaders Harendra Malik and Pankaj Malik, Sukhdev Rajbhar's son Ramchal Rajbhar, Lalji Verma joined the SP from Congress. is of. There is also talk of alliance with the SP of Aam Aadmi Party. Akhilesh Yadav's eyes are also on Sanjay Nishad, leader of the Nishad Party, who went with the BJP and some ministers of the Yogi government. Akhilesh's attempt is to reverse the elections by forming a backward alliance of Mandal's era in the cut of Hindutva of BJP. Apart from this, the Brahmin community, which constitutes about 12 percent in the state, is the most vocal voter group in this election. There is a competition among all the parties to take it with you. The BJP considers it to be its traditional support base and after the weakening of the Congress, the BJP has been the natural choice and party of the Brahmins. But in 2007, the BSP's slogans 'Pandit Shankh Bajga Haathi Badhte Jayega' and 'Hathi Nahi Ganesh Hai Brahma Vishnu Mahesh Hai' led a large number of Brahmins to join the BSP and it formed an absolute majority government. Later the Brahmins joined the SP and then the BJP in 2012. This time due to various reasons, there has been a perception in the state that Brahmins are neglected. And that is why while the Samajwadi Party is trying to connect the Brahmins by inaugurating the Parshuram temple, the BSP has tried this through enlightened conferences by forwarding Satish Mishra. At the same time, BSP is also raising the issue of Khushi Dubey, who is in jail in the Vikas Dubey case, and Satish Mishra himself is fighting a legal battle for it.


Priyanka Gandhi played the stake of gender justice

To counter the BJP's Hindu polarization and the SP's caste mobilization, the Congress has played the gamble of gender justice by putting forward Priyanka Gandhi. Priyanka Gandhi has issued a separate party manifesto for women, promising to give special opportunities to women, from giving 40 percent tickets to women to giving smart phones and scooties to girl students. Priyanka has held women's pledge rallies from Gorakhpur Varanasi to Mahoba and Chitrakoot with the slogan Ladki Hoon Lad Sakthi Ho and girls' marathon races are being organized in many cities. Priyanka made women's safety and empowerment such a big issue that even Prime Minister Narendra Modi had to address the women's convention in Prayagraj. Apart from this, Congress is also making promises like providing fair price for wheat, paddy to the farmers, halving electricity bills. Going ahead, Akhilesh Yadav has promised to provide electricity free of cost, so before the announcement of the election, the Yogi government halved the electricity bills. Overall, there are stakes in Uttar Pradesh elections ranging from development tropes to religious, caste and gender polarization.


Congress in Uttarakhand and Punjab

In Uttarakhand, the Congress has started projecting the issue of the BJP changing three chief ministers in five years as an insult to the mandate and incompetence of the government. Although the third Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami is working very hard. But he is also facing opposition from within his party and outside. At the same time, Harish Rawat also had to face factionalism within the Congress and when he showed sharp attitude, the high command gave him full authority. Rawat has focused his election campaign on the issue of Uttarakhandiyat. At the same time, this time the elections in Punjab have become multi-polar, not two-polar. Apart from the Congress and Akali BSP alliance, Aam Aadmi Party, BJP and Captain Amarinder Singh's Punjab Lok Congress alliance, after the farmers' agitation Balbir Singh Rajowal's party and Gurunam Singh Chaduni's party are also in the fray. At one time it seemed that the Congress would win again in Punjab under the leadership of Captain Amarinder Singh. But when Captain Sidhu was removed from the post of Chief Minister after a quarrel, the Congress seemed to have taken an ax on its feet. The BJP saw an opportunity for itself as the Akali Dal had already parted ways. Befriended and made electoral arrangements. But just as Charanjit Singh Channi, who became the Chief Minister of Punjab in the last few months, not only pacified his opponents within the party and weakened the opposition of state president Navjot Singh Sidhu, on the other hand his style of communicating directly with the general public. quickly made him popular. Channi's political response to the issue of security breaches during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Ferozepur on January 5 has enhanced his stature. At the same time, being the first Dalit Chief Minister of the state, the Congress has full confidence in the support of 33 percent of the Dalits of the state. On the other hand, instead of Parkash Singh Badal, the entire command of the Akali Dal has now come in the hands of his son Sukhbir Badal and the Akali Dal Leaders like Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa have parted ways in me, this has also weakened the hold of the Akali Dal. The Akali Dal also finds it difficult to get the support of urban and especially Hindu voters due to the break-up of the alliance with the BJP. While the BJP faces the tough challenge of contesting alone in the rural areas of Punjab, which it has strategized to fulfill through Captain Amarinder Singh. But the way people are not coming to Amarinder Singh's meetings, BJP is also worried about it. At the same time, the Aam Aadmi Party, which may not have been able to form the government in spite of all the efforts in the last elections, had definitely left the Akali Dal behind. This time the Aam Aadmi Party is again in the fray and has also given a slogan to give a new alternative. But its problem is that it does not have any local face of Punjab. So Chief Minister Channi also made Punjab and Punjabiyat an issue. started making. Because BJP wants to make nationalism an issue in border Punjab and use security breach in PM's convoy as a big weapon, Channi wants to cut it with Punjabiyat. How and to what extent is the Congress under the leadership of Channi able to counter the nationalism of BJP and the challenge of AAP. Whereas the condition of Akali Dal is visible in Punjab as it is seeing in Uttar Pradesh of its ally BSP.


Challenge of BJP to form government with absolute majority in Goa and Manipur


The Congress emerged as the single largest party in Goa and Manipur in the last elections as well, but the BJP manipulatively formed its government in both the states. This time in Goa, the BJP is in the fray without its stalwart leader Manohar Parrikar, and one of the BJP camps is very uncomfortable with the current Chief Minister. On the other hand, along with the Aam Aadmi Party, this time Trinamool Congress has also put a dent in Goa to eclipse the prospects of the Congress. But the main contest is between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. The same situation is in Manipur. Here in BJP most of the leaders are the same. Those who were earlier in the Congress, while the Congress is in the fray with its new leaders. Assam Chief Minister Himanto Vishwasarma is the chief strategist of BJP's Northeast politics. If Congress again misses majority in Goa and Manipur, BJP can repeat past history.



That is why these elections are more a test of the general public and voters than political parties as to what issues they like and what mandate they give.

Is there inflation, unemployment, women's security, women's empowerment in Uttar Pradesh, corona mismanagement, police excesses, dalit oppression, derailment of business industry, manure crisis, decreasing income of farmers, problem of stray and abandoned animals, expensive petrol diesel, kitchen People will vote keeping in mind the gas Or will vote by giving preference to announcements of development projects, foundation stones and inaugurations, free ration, fear of deteriorating law and order from Muslim mafia, Kashi Vishwanath Dham, Ram temple in Ayodhya, development of Shri Krishna temple in Mathura, Jinnah and cow slogans. Will the people form the double engine government of Modi Yogi again for the next five years or will they trust Akhilesh again, the youth who started the journey of development in the state through Lucknow-Agra Expressway and Metro Rail projects. Will people flow in the Hindu polarization of BJP or will the slogan of SP's caste mobilization and backwards inquilab show its colours. Will Priyanka Gandhi's slogan of women empowerment, 40 percent women get tickets and with her participation, will the slogan of Ladki Hoon Lad Sakini Hoon overcome religious and caste polarization and bring half of the state's population to the Congress or will women come from the social background of their families? And will vote according to the political preferences of the husbands. Will Mayawati, who is considered to be the top of law and order, be able to do some charisma on the basis of her Dalit mass base and will Satish Mishra be able to connect Brahmins with her like in 2007 or will BSP seats remain close to last time even after saving her vote bank? Will go More or less similar questions will be in front of the voters of Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur and their decision will decide the future political direction of the country and the states. Therefore, it is more a litmus test for voters than for parties.

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